Heat Pump vs Furnace Cost Calculator (15-Year)
Compare the estimated 15-year cost of a cold-climate heat pump, a gas furnace with AC, an oil boiler and a dual-fuel system for one house. Every system cost and efficiency is a default you should replace with your own numbers, and every result is an estimate. For the full reasoning, read heat pump vs furnace.
Heat pump vs furnace 15-year cost calculator
Northeast US (default)Zone 5A · 5°F heating / 88°F cooling design
Systems
Placeholder costs and efficiencies: edit with your local numbers. Incentives start at $0; enter only what the customer actually qualifies for.
Savings and costs are estimates based on the assumptions shown. They are not guaranteed.
| System | Net installed | Energy | Maintenance | 15-yr total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gas furnace + ACYear 1 energy $1,211 | $12,000 | $22,522 | $3,000 | $37,522 |
| Cold-climate heat pumpYear 1 energy $1,324 | $18,000 | $24,631 | $3,000 | $45,631 |
| Oil boiler (no cooling)Year 1 energy $1,751 | $10,000 | $32,562 | $4,500 | $47,062 |
| Dual-fuel (heat pump + gas furnace)Year 1 energy $1,424 | $20,000 | $26,482 | $3,750 | $50,232 |
With these inputs, Gas furnace + AC comes out about $8,109 lower over 15 years than Cold-climate heat pump. Change the prices or installed costs and the order can flip; that is the point of running it with local numbers.
Year-1 fuel use by system
- Gas furnace + AC: 556 therms + 1,689 kWh cooling
- Cold-climate heat pump: 5,563 kWh + 1,407 kWh cooling
- Oil boiler (no cooling): 449 gal oil
- Dual-fuel (heat pump + gas furnace): 4,974 kWh + 111 therms + 1,583 kWh cooling
Assumptions behind this estimate
- Climate
- Northeast US (default) (zone 5A), 6,000 HDD65 / 700 CDD65
- Design loads (estimate)
- 36,700 BTU/h heating / 24,500 BTU/h cooling
- Annual heat delivered
- 53 MMBtu (degree-day method, 0.65 correction)
- Annual cooling delivered
- 25 MMBtu (degree-day method, 0.8 correction)
- Heat pump efficiency
- HSPF2 used as the seasonal average; real cold-climate performance can be lower
- Fuel heat content
- 100,000 BTU/therm, 138,500 BTU/gal oil, 91,500 BTU/gal propane
- Escalation
- 3% per year on all energy, compounded
- Not included
- Financing, replacement within 15 years, salvage value, demand charges, tiered rates
Do this room by room in Tradewright
Real equipment, your price book and the home's room-by-room load, compared side by side at the kitchen table.
Why first cost misleads
Customers compare the number at the bottom of the proposal. But the installed price is only the first of fifteen or more years of bills. A system that costs less to put in can cost more to own once fuel, electricity and maintenance are added up, and the reverse is just as possible.
The answer depends on local prices and the house. The ratio of electricity price to gas, oil or propane price, the climate, the heat pump's real efficiency and the incentives the customer actually qualifies for all move the result. That is why this calculator starts with your ZIP and house, and why every price and cost is editable.
Use your customer's utility bills where you can. For a reference point, the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes average electricity prices, natural gas prices and heating oil and propane prices by state.
Sources
How the comparison works
Step 1: Annual heat and cooling
Your ZIP gives heating and cooling degree days. The estimated design load is scaled by degree days to get the heat and cooling the house uses in a year.
Step 2: Fuel and electricity per system
Annual heat is divided by each system's efficiency (AFUE or HSPF2) and the fuel's heat content to get therms, gallons or kWh. Cooling uses SEER2.
Step 3: 15 years of bills
Year-1 energy cost grows each year at your escalation rate. Annual maintenance is added for 15 years.
Step 4: Net installed cost
Installed cost minus the incentives you enter. The table sorts systems from lowest to highest 15-year total.
Questions
What assumptions does the calculator make?
It estimates annual heating and cooling from a whole-house design load and your local degree days, uses each system's rated efficiency as its seasonal average, applies one escalation rate to all energy prices, and ignores financing, replacements within 15 years and tiered or time-of-use rates. All assumptions are listed under the result.
Where do the default prices and costs come from?
They are defaults, not quotes to make the calculator work out of the box. Replace the energy prices with the customer's utility rates and the installed costs with your own price book. Do not quote a customer from the defaults.
What escalation rate should I use?
There is no right answer; nobody knows future energy prices. Try a few rates, including zero, and see whether the ranking changes. If it does not, the conclusion is robust. If it does, tell the customer that.
Why are incentives set to zero?
Rebates and tax credits change often and depend on the utility, the equipment and the customer. Enter only incentives the customer actually qualifies for, from the current program rules.
How is dual-fuel modelled?
The heat pump delivers a share of the annual heat (80% by default) at its HSPF2, and a gas furnace covers the rest at its AFUE. Change the share to match the switchover temperature you plan to use.
Is HSPF2 a fair efficiency for a cold climate?
It is a rating, not a guarantee. Real seasonal efficiency in a cold climate can be lower than the HSPF2 rating, especially for standard units. Lower the HSPF2 to test a more conservative case.
Why does the oil boiler have no cooling cost?
Because it does not cool. If the house needs air conditioning, add the cost of a separate AC to the oil boiler's installed cost and maintenance to keep the comparison fair.
Are the savings guaranteed?
No. The results are estimates based on the inputs shown. Actual costs depend on the weather, energy prices, how the house is used and how the system is installed and maintained.
Compare whole systems on 15-year cost in Tradewright, with your price book.
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